No surprises from FOMC minutes with suggestion that a June rate hike is off the table. Current market pricing of US Fed interest rate hike is Jun 6%, Sep 40%, Oct 63%, Dec 94%.
The question now is whether the USD bid this week is a correction of the USD sell off past two months or a continuation of the broader USD rally past year.
The market will continue to be data dependent and news driven. Tonight, we have ECB minutes, USD existing home sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing and ECB President Draghi speaking amongst other events. The Greece saga continues with a deal deadline at the end of the month.
Trading Quote of the Day: “There is nothing wrong with changing a plan when the situation has changed.” –Seneca
Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support
EURUSD
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.1165 with targets @ 1.106 & 1.1015 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.1165 look for further upside with 1.1215 & 1.128 as targets.
Comment: The pair stands below its resistance.
GBPUSD
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.5445 with targets @ 1.563 & 1.567 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5445 look for further downside with 1.539 & 1.535 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
AUDUSD
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.795 with targets @ 0.7855 & 0.783 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.795 look for further upside with 0.798 & 0.803 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 0.795 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7855 remains
NZDUSD
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7375 with targets @ 0.727 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.7375 look for further upside with 0.741 & 0.745 as targets.
Comment: As long as 0.7375 is resistance, likely decline to 0.727.
USDJPY
Likely scenario: Long positions above 120.7 with targets @ 121.5 & 122 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 120.7 look for further downside with 120.3 & 120.1 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
USDCHF
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.933 with targets @ 0.941 & 0.945 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.933 look for further downside with 0.927 & 0.9215 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
USDCAD
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.226 with targets @ 1.2155 & 1.211 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.226 look for further upside with 1.2305 & 1.2355 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.226 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.2155 remains high.
GOLD
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1213.75 with targets @ 1200 & 1191 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1213.75 look for further upside with 1224 & 1232 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1213.75 is resistance, likely decline to 1200.
OIL
Likely scenario: Short positions below 59.3 with targets @ 57.9 & 57.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 59.3 look for further upside with 60 & 60.8 as targets.
Comment: As long as 59.3 is resistance, likely decline to 57.9.
DAX
Likely scenario: Long positions above 11635 with targets @ 11900 & 12085 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 11635 look for further downside with 11415 & 11225 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed.
We hope you will make wise investment decisions basing on the information given.
